The Netherlands risks falling structurally behind at a time of geopolitical tensions, accelerating technological change, and growing pressure on public services. Only through targeted and timely investment, the country will be able to keep paying for essential public provisions and guarantee prosperity for future generations. That is the conclusion of Peter Wennink in his advisory report published today, ‘The Route to Future Prosperity A Strong Netherlands in a Relevant Europe.’ The report was presented to Prime Minister Schoof and Minister Karremans of Economic Affairs, and translates the Draghi report to the Dutch context.
According to Wennink, the Netherlands has exceptional strengths’talent, quality, knowledge and innovative capacity’but risks losing its position due to complacency and fragmented governance. ‘The Netherlands has everything it takes to be not only a country that consumes, but also one that produces,’ Wennink said. ‘But then we must have the courage to make tough choices and stop letting investments get stuck in uncertainty, regulations, and deferred maintenance of crucial preconditions. If we fail to do so, we will lose not only economic opportunities, but also public trust.’ Wennink stresses that the necessary measures are within reach. ‘The choices we make now will determine whether our children live in a strong or a weakened Netherlands. This roadmap shows: it can be done, it is feasible, and it is affordable. But it requires direction, speed and consistency. You don’t build prosperity by waiting’you build it by investing and taking action.’
Four domains
The report identifies four technological domains in which the Netherlands can build and maintain strategic positions and relevance: digitalisation & AI, life sciences & biotechnology, security & resilience, and energy & climate technology. In an initial broad inventory across these domains, Wennink gathered 51 concrete proposals representing an investment potential of approximately ‘126 billion. A significant share of this could be financed privately, provided that future governments put key preconditions in order. Up to 2035, the Netherlands must mobilise at least ‘151”187 billion in additional productivity-enhancing investments to achieve structural economic growth of at least 1.5% per year.
Preconditions
The lack of the right preconditions is currently the biggest obstacle to the necessary growth. Permitting is far too slow and complex, the shortage of well-skilled talent is increasing, energy prices are higher than in neighbouring countries, nitrogen policy and grid congestion are locking up too much economic development, and both physical and digital infrastructure suffer from deferred maintenance. These preconditions for private investment must be put in order as quickly as possible. If the Netherlands fails to do so, necessary investments will not materialise and the economy will stagnate.
More decisive governance
The report further argues that more decisive governance is needed to deliver on these strategic challenges. A Government Commissioner for Future Prosperity should play a central role. This commissioner is proposed as an independent implementation authority with the power to accelerate strategic projects, break through interdepartmental blockages, and strengthen public-private collaboration. In addition, Wennink recommends establishing a National Investment Bank with working capital of at least ’10 billion and a National Agency for Breakthrough Innovation with a budget of ‘2 billion, to use public funds to stimulate private investment more effectively.
Independent advice
Peter Wennink was asked in early September to deliver independent advice on the Netherlands’ future earning capacity. In doing so, he also assessed what the recommendations of the Draghi report mean for the Netherlands.
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